AHLDashboard
‹ Wednesday, October 30

Tucson Roadrunners at Abbotsford Canucks

Abbotsford Centre · Abbotsford, BC

Tucson Roadrunners
5:2
Final
Abbotsford Canucks

The sheet

TUCABBSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
43%57%
xG
2.23.3
High danger
63
Chances
89
Shots
2140

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

0123P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
ABB above the lineTUC belowDots are goals. Pre-game 51% ABB.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

21Shots on goal40
8Scoring chances9
6High-danger chances3
2.17Expected goals3.29

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st11–93–22–10.9–0.7
2nd4–151–21–10.3–1.2
3rd6–164–53–10.9–1.4

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

ABB−30:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
ABB38:43 of the 3rd11:1711:17+0.016 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Jaxson Stauber
Shots faced
40
Saves
38
Allowed
2
xGA
3.29
GSAx
+1.29
Nikita Tolopilo
Shots faced
11
Saves
7
Allowed
4
xGA
0.93
GSAx
-3.07
Jiří Patera
Shots faced
10
Saves
9
Allowed
1
xGA
1.23
GSAx
+0.23

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 0:37Kevin Connauton (1–0)low · 23 ft · beat Nikita Tolopilo
  • 1st 7:14Sam Lipkin (2–0)high · 7 ft · beat Nikita Tolopilo
  • 1st 13:21Penalty
  • 1st 14:37Egor Sokolov (3–0)5v4 · low · 41 ft · beat Nikita Tolopilo
  • 1st 15:24Penalty
  • 1st 15:24Penalty
  • 1st 15:24Penalty
  • 1st 15:24Penalty
  • 1st 15:35Penalty
  • 1st 16:34Jonathan Lekkerimäki (3–1)5v4 · low · 47 ft · beat Jaxson Stauber
  • 1st 18:04Penalty
  • 1st 18:04Penalty
  • 1st 18:04Penalty
  • 1st 19:35Josh Doan (4–1)5v4 · medium · 52 ft · beat Nikita Tolopilo
  • 2nd 1:56Max Sasson (4–2)low · 34 ft · beat Jaxson Stauber
  • 2nd 3:01Penalty
  • 2nd 7:44Penalty
  • 2nd 8:43Penalty
  • 2nd 12:27Penalty
  • 2nd 15:42Penalty
  • 2nd 18:45Penalty
  • 2nd 18:45Penalty
  • 2nd 19:19Penalty
  • 3rd 5:04Penalty
  • 3rd 7:58Penalty
  • 3rd 7:58Penalty
  • 3rd 8:43Josh Doan (5–2)low · 33 ft · beat Jiří Patera
  • 3rd 10:05Penalty
  • 3rd 15:42Penalty