Bridgeport Islanders at Springfield Thunderbirds

MassMutual Center · Springfield, MA

Bridgeport Islanders

4:1

Final

Springfield Thunderbirds

The sheet

BRISPRSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

77%23%

xG: 3.62.0
High danger: 82
Chances: 158
Shots: 3524

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

SPR above the lineBRI belowDots are goals. Pre-game 53% SPR.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

35Shots on goal24

15Scoring chances8

8High-danger chances2

3.60Expected goals1.98

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	10–6	2–2	1–0	0.6–0.6
2nd	16–7	10–3	5–1	2.1–0.7
3rd	9–11	3–3	2–1	0.9–0.7

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
SPR	2	12:09 of the 3rd	7:51	7:51	+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Vadim Zherenko

Shots faced: 35
Saves: 31
Allowed: 4
xGA: 3.60
GSAx: -0.40

Jakub Skarek

Shots faced: 24
Saves: 23
Allowed: 1
xGA: 1.98
GSAx: +0.98

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 2:27Wyatt Newpower (1–0)low · 56 ft · beat Vadim Zherenko
1st 3:11Dalibor Dvorský (1–1)low · 24 ft · beat Jakub Skarek
1st 5:07Penalty
1st 18:49Penalty
2nd 5:40Penalty
2nd 10:49Penalty
2nd 12:01Fredrik Karlström (2–1)5v4 · high · 6 ft · beat Vadim Zherenko
2nd 19:47Brian Pinho (3–1)high · 8 ft · beat Vadim Zherenko
3rd 2:58Penalty
3rd 15:23Isaiah George (4–1)low · 39 ft · beat Vadim Zherenko