AHLDashboard
‹ Friday, November 1

Milwaukee Admirals at Manitoba Moose

Canada Life Centre · Winnipeg, MB

Milwaukee Admirals
4:2
Final
Manitoba Moose

The sheet

MILMBSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
38%62%
xG
2.73.8
High danger
47
Chances
910
Shots
2432

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

01234P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
MB above the lineMIL belowDots are goals. Pre-game 54% MB.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

24Shots on goal32
9Scoring chances10
4High-danger chances7
2.72Expected goals3.76

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st8–102–51–40.9–1.7
2nd8–104–33–21.2–1.1
3rd8–123–20–10.6–1.0

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

MB−20:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
MB212:09 of the 3rd7:517:51+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Matthew Murray
Shots faced
32
Saves
30
Allowed
2
xGA
3.76
GSAx
+1.76
Thomas Milic
Shots faced
24
Saves
20
Allowed
4
xGA
2.72
GSAx
-1.28

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 3:34Penalty
  • 1st 7:05Reid Schaefer (1–0)low · 36 ft · beat Thomas Milic
  • 1st 14:47Penalty
  • 1st 17:17Penalty
  • 1st 19:00Penalty
  • 1st 19:50Penalty
  • 1st 19:50Kieffer Bellows (2–0)5v4 · grade A · rebound · 33 ft · beat Thomas Milic
  • 2nd 2:57Nikita Chibrikov (2–1)medium · 23 ft · beat Matthew Murray
  • 2nd 11:34Penalty
  • 2nd 12:40Axel Jonsson-Fjällby (2–2)4v5 · high · 15 ft · beat Matthew Murray
  • 2nd 12:45Reid Schaefer (3–2)5v4 · grade A · 13 ft · beat Thomas Milic
  • 2nd 13:07Penalty
  • 3rd 5:37Penalty
  • 3rd 6:56Nick Blankenburg (4–2)5v4 · low · 46 ft · beat Thomas Milic