Coachella Valley Firebirds at Bakersfield Condors

Mechanics Bank Arena · Bakersfield, CA

Coachella Valley Firebirds

3:5

Final

Bakersfield Condors

The sheet

CVBAKSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

77%23%

xG: 6.33.2
High danger: 148
Chances: 2413
Shots: 4834

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

BAK above the lineCV belowDots are goals. Pre-game 51% BAK.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

48Shots on goal34

24Scoring chances13

14High-danger chances8

6.35Expected goals3.16

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	17–12	10–5	7–4	2.8–1.2
2nd	17–10	6–3	2–3	1.7–0.9
3rd	14–12	8–5	5–1	1.9–1.0

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
CV	3	3:09 of the 3rd	16:51	16:51	+0.022 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Olivier Rodrigue

Shots faced: 48
Saves: 45
Allowed: 3
xGA: 6.35
GSAx: +3.35

Aleš Stezka

Shots faced: 34
Saves: 29
Allowed: 5
xGA: 3.16
GSAx: -1.84

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 8:59Daniel D’Amato (0–1)high · wrist · 10 ft · beat Aleš Stezka
1st 10:19Ty Nelson (1–1)high · wrist · rebound · 10 ft · beat Olivier Rodrigue
1st 17:14Max Wanner (1–2)low · slap · 66 ft · beat Aleš Stezka
2nd 2:42James Stefan (1–3)low · wrist · 32 ft · beat Aleš Stezka
2nd 5:01David Goyette (2–3)low · wrist · 14 ft · beat Olivier Rodrigue
2nd 5:21Penalty
2nd 19:03Matvey Petrov (2–4)high · wrist · 17 ft · beat Aleš Stezka
2nd 19:37Penalty
2nd 19:37Penalty
3rd 3:09Matthew Savoie (2–5)medium · wrist · 26 ft · beat Aleš Stezka
3rd 3:20Penalty
3rd 9:22Penalty
3rd 11:24Penalty
3rd 14:06Gustav Olofsson (3–5)grade A · backhand · rebound · 9 ft · beat Olivier Rodrigue