AHLDashboard
‹ Friday, November 1

Ontario Reign at Henderson Silver Knights

Lee’s Family Forum · Henderson, NV

Ontario Reign
4:1
Final
Henderson Silver Knights

The sheet

ONTHSKSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
74%26%
xG
4.23.0
High danger
73
Chances
1814
Shots
3835

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

01234P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
HSK above the lineONT belowDots are goals. Pre-game 53% HSK.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

38Shots on goal35
18Scoring chances14
7High-danger chances3
4.16Expected goals3.04

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st18–510–03–02.3–0.2
2nd10–155–73–21.3–1.5
3rd10–153–71–10.6–1.4

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

HSK−20:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
HSK212:09 of the 3rd7:517:51+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Akira Schmid
Shots faced
38
Saves
34
Allowed
4
xGA
4.16
GSAx
+0.16
Erik Portillo
Shots faced
35
Saves
34
Allowed
1
xGA
3.04
GSAx
+2.04

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 2:00Penalty
  • 1st 5:48Penalty
  • 1st 5:57Reilly Walsh (1–0)5v4 · medium · rebound · 39 ft · beat Akira Schmid
  • 1st 6:32Penalty
  • 1st 6:55Penalty
  • 1st 19:37Shawn Element (2–0)high · tip · 7 ft · beat Akira Schmid
  • 2nd 1:10Penalty
  • 2nd 1:15Mason Morelli (2–1)5v4 · high · snap · 14 ft · beat Erik Portillo
  • 2nd 3:04Penalty
  • 2nd 9:07Jacob Doty (3–1)grade A · wrist · 19 ft · beat Akira Schmid
  • 2nd 10:29Penalty
  • 2nd 14:18Penalty
  • 2nd 14:18Penalty
  • 2nd 16:32Penalty
  • 2nd 16:32Penalty
  • 2nd 20:00Penalty
  • 2nd 20:00Penalty
  • 3rd 0:32Penalty
  • 3rd 6:02Penalty
  • 3rd 18:49Charles Hudon (4–1)empty net · high · snap · 8 ft · beat Akira Schmid