Providence Bruins at Laval Rocket

Place Bell · Laval, QC

Providence Bruins

3:6

Final

Laval Rocket

The sheet

PROLAVSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

85%15%

xG: 3.51.5
High danger: 82
Chances: 128
Shots: 3322

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

LAV above the linePRO belowDots are goals. Pre-game 51% LAV.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

33Shots on goal22

12Scoring chances8

8High-danger chances2

3.52Expected goals1.50

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	6–10	4–4	2–0	0.9–0.7
2nd	9–6	1–3	1–1	0.5–0.6
3rd	18–6	7–1	5–1	2.1–0.3

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
PRO	2	12:09 of the 3rd	7:51	7:05	+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Connor Hughes

Shots faced: 33
Saves: 30
Allowed: 3
xGA: 3.52
GSAx: +0.52

Brandon Bussi

Shots faced: 22
Saves: 16
Allowed: 6
xGA: 1.50
GSAx: -4.50

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 4:16Penalty
1st 11:42Riley Tufte (1–0)low · 16 ft · beat Connor Hughes
1st 16:36Penalty
1st 19:10Vincent Arseneau (1–1)low · wrist · 33 ft · beat Brandon Bussi
2nd 8:43Logan Mailloux (1–2)low · 61 ft · beat Brandon Bussi
2nd 10:20Tyler Pitlick (2–2)high · 10 ft · beat Connor Hughes
2nd 11:14Penalty
2nd 11:14Penalty
2nd 11:14Penalty
2nd 11:14Penalty
2nd 11:14Penalty
2nd 11:14Penalty
2nd 11:14Penalty
2nd 11:55Joshua Roy (2–3)high · 22 ft · beat Brandon Bussi
2nd 14:43Penalty
2nd 14:43Penalty
2nd 14:43Penalty
2nd 15:38Joshua Roy (2–4)5v4 · medium · 37 ft · beat Brandon Bussi
2nd 15:51Penalty
2nd 15:51Penalty
3rd 6:22Penalty
3rd 9:09Penalty
3rd 15:10Penalty
3rd 15:10Penalty
3rd 15:10Penalty
3rd 15:10Penalty
3rd 16:10Vinni Lettieri (3–4)low · 50 ft · beat Connor Hughes
3rd 17:26Laurent Dauphin (3–5)high · 13 ft · beat Brandon Bussi
3rd 17:48Joshua Roy (3–6)empty net · low · 149 ft · beat Brandon Bussi
3rd 18:05Penalty
3rd 18:05Penalty
3rd 20:00Penalty
3rd 20:00Penalty