Milwaukee Admirals at Manitoba Moose

Canada Life Centre · Winnipeg, MB

Milwaukee Admirals

4:1

Final

Manitoba Moose

The sheet

MILMBSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

22%78%

xG: 1.93.3
High danger: 47
Chances: 614
Shots: 2733

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

MB above the lineMIL belowDots are goals. Pre-game 54% MB.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

27Shots on goal33

6Scoring chances14

4High-danger chances7

1.93Expected goals3.31

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	8–13	4–9	3–5	1.1–1.6
2nd	11–11	1–4	0–1	0.4–1.0
3rd	8–9	1–1	1–1	0.4–0.7

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
MB	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	3:04	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Magnus Chrona

Shots faced: 33
Saves: 32
Allowed: 1
xGA: 3.31
GSAx: +2.31

Domenic DiVincentiis

Shots faced: 27
Saves: 23
Allowed: 4
xGA: 1.93
GSAx: -2.07

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 0:33Penalty
1st 3:37Penalty
1st 3:37Penalty
1st 4:18Penalty
1st 6:14Fedor Svechkov (1–0)5v4 · low · 20 ft · beat Domenic DiVincentiis
1st 8:34Penalty
1st 14:42Henri Nikkanen (1–1)low · 35 ft · beat Magnus Chrona
1st 17:56Penalty
2nd 4:22Penalty
2nd 5:04Penalty
2nd 8:35Jake Lucchini (2–1)low · 56 ft · beat Domenic DiVincentiis
3rd 10:14Penalty
3rd 17:20Vinnie Hinostroza (3–1)empty net · low · 71 ft · beat Domenic DiVincentiis
3rd 18:04Navrin Mutter (4–1)empty net · high · 156 ft · beat Domenic DiVincentiis
3rd 19:23Penalty