San Jose Barracuda at Iowa Wild

Wells Fargo Arena · Des Moines, IA

San Jose Barracuda

1:4

Final

Iowa Wild

The sheet

SJIASolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

25%75%

xG: 2.43.5
High danger: 28
Chances: 717
Shots: 3236

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

IA above the lineSJ belowDots are goals. Pre-game 50% IA.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

32Shots on goal36

7Scoring chances17

2High-danger chances8

2.44Expected goals3.54

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	10–15	1–6	0–2	0.6–1.4
2nd	9–9	3–4	0–2	0.7–0.8
3rd	13–12	3–7	2–4	1.1–1.3

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
SJ	3	0:00 of the 3rd	20:00	20:00	+0.024 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Yaroslav Askarov

Shots faced: 36
Saves: 32
Allowed: 4
xGA: 3.54
GSAx: -0.46

Jesper Wallstedt

Shots faced: 32
Saves: 31
Allowed: 1
xGA: 2.43
GSAx: +1.43

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 0:15Ben Jones (0–1)medium · 23 ft · beat Yaroslav Askarov
1st 11:58Penalty
1st 12:35Penalty
1st 15:19Penalty
1st 19:49Michael Milne (0–2)medium · 15 ft · beat Yaroslav Askarov
2nd 4:54Brendan Gaunce (0–3)high · 22 ft · beat Yaroslav Askarov
2nd 5:03Penalty
2nd 12:18Penalty
2nd 15:59Penalty
2nd 15:59Penalty
2nd 18:20Penalty
3rd 4:07Penalty
3rd 4:07Penalty
3rd 6:52Penalty
3rd 7:02Penalty
3rd 10:52Penalty
3rd 10:52Penalty
3rd 10:52Penalty
3rd 12:09Penalty
3rd 12:23Colin White (1–3)grade A · rebound · 13 ft · beat Jesper Wallstedt
3rd 18:55Travis Boyd (1–4)empty net · high · 20 ft · beat Yaroslav Askarov