Lehigh Valley Phantoms at Springfield Thunderbirds

MassMutual Center · Springfield, MA

Lehigh Valley Phantoms

5:2

Final

Springfield Thunderbirds

The sheet

LVSPRSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

78%22%

xG: 4.72.4
High danger: 84
Chances: 207
Shots: 4323

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

SPR above the lineLV belowDots are goals. Pre-game 54% SPR.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

43Shots on goal23

20Scoring chances7

8High-danger chances4

4.69Expected goals2.39

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	17–10	9–2	3–1	2.1–0.9
2nd	17–6	8–3	2–2	1.7–0.8
3rd	9–7	3–2	3–1	0.8–0.7

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
SPR	3	6:33 of the 3rd	13:27	9:32	+0.019 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Colten Ellis

Shots faced: 43
Saves: 38
Allowed: 5
xGA: 4.69
GSAx: -0.31

Eetu Makiniemi

Shots faced: 23
Saves: 21
Allowed: 2
xGA: 2.39
GSAx: +0.39

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 0:21Penalty
1st 0:21Penalty
1st 4:29Penalty
1st 4:29Penalty
1st 4:29Penalty
1st 7:49Penalty
1st 7:49Penalty
1st 7:49Penalty
1st 17:20Penalty
1st 18:20Penalty
1st 19:12Jacob Gaucher (1–0)5v4 · grade A · rebound · 10 ft · beat Colten Ellis
2nd 0:38Jacob Gaucher (2–0)medium · 20 ft · beat Colten Ellis
2nd 3:03Penalty
2nd 3:37Samu Tuomaala (3–0)5v4 · medium · 36 ft · beat Colten Ellis
2nd 13:14Penalty
2nd 14:56Drew Callin (3–1)5v4 · grade A · rebound · 6 ft · beat Eetu Makiniemi
2nd 18:26Penalty
2nd 18:26Penalty
2nd 18:26Penalty
2nd 18:26Penalty
2nd 18:26Penalty
2nd 18:26Penalty
2nd 18:26Penalty
3rd 6:33Jacob Gaucher (4–1)high · 20 ft · beat Colten Ellis
3rd 6:43Penalty
3rd 8:14Dalibor Dvorský (4–2)5v4 · low · 44 ft · beat Eetu Makiniemi
3rd 12:56Anthony Richard (5–2)high · 18 ft · beat Colten Ellis
3rd 19:28Penalty