Chicago Wolves at Rockford IceHogs

BMO Center · Rockford, IL

Chicago Wolves

3:2

Final

Rockford IceHogs

The sheet

CHIRFDSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

49%51%

xG: 1.92.3
High danger: 43
Chances: 612
Shots: 2223

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

RFD above the lineCHI belowDots are goals. Pre-game 50% RFD.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

22Shots on goal23

6Scoring chances12

4High-danger chances3

1.90Expected goals2.25

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	9–7	3–5	2–2	0.8–0.9
2nd	11–5	3–3	2–0	1.0–0.5
3rd	2–11	0–4	0–1	0.1–0.9

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
RFD	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	3:04	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Ruslan Khazheyev

Shots faced: 23
Saves: 21
Allowed: 2
xGA: 2.25
GSAx: +0.25

Mitchell Weeks

Shots faced: 22
Saves: 19
Allowed: 3
xGA: 1.90
GSAx: -1.10

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 1:52Tyson Jost (1–0)low · 51 ft · beat Mitchell Weeks
1st 4:56Penalty
1st 5:18Brett Seney (1–1)5v4 · high · 14 ft · beat Ruslan Khazheyev
1st 7:04Brendan Lemieux (2–1)high · rebound · 12 ft · beat Mitchell Weeks
1st 8:02Noel Gunler (3–1)low · 43 ft · beat Mitchell Weeks
1st 9:15Penalty
1st 17:07Penalty
1st 19:59Penalty
2nd 2:03Gerry Mayhew (3–2)medium · 21 ft · beat Ruslan Khazheyev
2nd 6:55Penalty
2nd 7:44Penalty
2nd 8:26Penalty
2nd 8:26Penalty
2nd 13:08Penalty
2nd 18:41Penalty
3rd 8:16Penalty