Henderson Silver Knights at Ontario Reign

Toyota Arena · Ontario, CA

Henderson Silver Knights

3:8

Final

Ontario Reign

The sheet

HSKONTSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

8%92%

xG: 1.96.9
High danger: 315
Chances: 528
Shots: 2050

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

ONT above the lineHSK belowDots are goals. Pre-game 53% ONT.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

20Shots on goal50

5Scoring chances28

3High-danger chances15

1.94Expected goals6.92

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	11–14	3–7	2–5	1.0–1.7
2nd	8–19	2–12	1–4	0.8–2.6
3rd	1–17	0–9	0–6	0.1–2.6

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
HSK	3	0:00 of the 3rd	20:00	20:00	+0.024 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Jordan Papirny

Shots faced: 50
Saves: 42
Allowed: 8
xGA: 6.92
GSAx: -1.08

Pheonix Copley

Shots faced: 20
Saves: 17
Allowed: 3
xGA: 1.94
GSAx: -1.06

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 1:36Jakub Brabenec (1–0)grade A · rebound · 11 ft · beat Pheonix Copley
1st 8:11Martin Chromiak (1–1)medium · 14 ft · beat Jordan Papirny
1st 8:17Penalty
1st 10:31Matyas Sapovaliv (2–1)medium · 17 ft · beat Pheonix Copley
1st 12:14Samuel Fagemo (2–2)low · 24 ft · beat Jordan Papirny
1st 13:09Penalty
1st 13:59Jack Studnicka (2–3)5v4 · medium · 15 ft · beat Jordan Papirny
1st 14:09Penalty
1st 14:09Penalty
1st 15:10Penalty
1st 18:53Penalty
2nd 1:25Charles Hudon (2–4)medium · 18 ft · beat Jordan Papirny
2nd 4:50Tanner Laczynski (3–4)grade A · rebound · 11 ft · beat Pheonix Copley
2nd 8:24Penalty
2nd 9:50Samuel Fagemo (3–5)5v4 · grade A · rebound · 13 ft · beat Jordan Papirny
2nd 11:17Penalty
2nd 18:29Penalty
2nd 19:01Shawn Element (3–6)4v5 · medium · 24 ft · beat Jordan Papirny
3rd 6:20Penalty
3rd 6:46Glenn Gawdin (3–7)5v4 · grade A · 15 ft · beat Jordan Papirny
3rd 7:50Penalty
3rd 10:54Penalty
3rd 10:54Penalty
3rd 10:54Penalty
3rd 10:54Penalty
3rd 12:32Jack Studnicka (3–8)grade A · 12 ft · beat Jordan Papirny
3rd 14:12Penalty
3rd 14:12Penalty
3rd 14:12Penalty
3rd 14:12Penalty
3rd 14:12Penalty
3rd 14:12Penalty
3rd 15:26Penalty
3rd 18:41Penalty