Abbotsford Canucks at San Diego Gulls

Pechanga Arena San Diego · San Diego, CA

Abbotsford Canucks

3:1

Final

San Diego Gulls

The sheet

ABBSDSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

58%42%

xG: 2.52.3
High danger: 11
Chances: 1010
Shots: 2827

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

SD above the lineABB belowDots are goals. Pre-game 54% SD.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

28Shots on goal27

10Scoring chances10

1High-danger chances1

2.46Expected goals2.32

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	9–9	3–3	0–1	0.7–0.8
2nd	11–8	6–1	1–0	1.3–0.4
3rd	8–10	1–6	0–0	0.4–1.1

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
SD	2	12:09 of the 3rd	7:51	7:51	+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Calle Clang

Shots faced: 27
Saves: 25
Allowed: 2
xGA: 2.42
GSAx: +0.42

Jiří Patera

Shots faced: 27
Saves: 26
Allowed: 1
xGA: 2.32
GSAx: +1.32

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 5:44Penalty
1st 9:00John Stevens (1–0)medium · 10 ft · beat Calle Clang
1st 9:56Penalty
1st 13:21Penalty
1st 18:07Penalty
2nd 1:42Penalty
2nd 1:42Penalty
2nd 1:42Penalty
2nd 2:10Aatu Räty (2–0)4v5 · high · 11 ft · beat Calle Clang
2nd 4:17Penalty
2nd 16:51Penalty
3rd 17:21Aatu Räty (3–0)empty net · low · 37 ft
3rd 19:07Roland McKeown (3–1)medium · 15 ft · beat Jiří Patera
3rd 19:26Penalty
3rd 19:26Penalty
3rd 19:26Penalty
3rd 19:26Penalty