Texas Stars at Colorado Eagles

Blue Federal Credit Union Arena · Loveland, CO

Texas Stars

1:5

Final

Colorado Eagles

The sheet

TEXCOLSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

16%84%

xG: 2.33.3
High danger: 17
Chances: 1016
Shots: 2631

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

COL above the lineTEX belowDots are goals. Pre-game 57% COL.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

26Shots on goal31

10Scoring chances16

1High-danger chances7

2.25Expected goals3.35

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	8–12	4–5	1–2	0.8–1.1
2nd	9–8	3–5	0–2	0.7–0.9
3rd	9–11	3–6	0–3	0.7–1.3

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
TEX	3	3:15 of the 3rd	16:45	16:45	+0.022 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Ben Kraws

Shots faced: 31
Saves: 26
Allowed: 5
xGA: 3.35
GSAx: -1.65

Trent Miner

Shots faced: 26
Saves: 25
Allowed: 1
xGA: 2.25
GSAx: +1.25

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 4:27Penalty
1st 13:00Penalty
1st 14:25Calle Rosén (0–1)5v4 · low · 43 ft · beat Ben Kraws
1st 15:21Penalty
1st 15:21Penalty
1st 15:21Penalty
1st 15:21Penalty
1st 15:21Penalty
1st 16:50Chase Bradley (0–2)4v5 · medium · 24 ft · beat Ben Kraws
2nd 1:49Matěj Blümel (1–2)low · 24 ft · beat Trent Miner
2nd 7:56Penalty
2nd 9:55Penalty
2nd 11:27Matthew Phillips (1–3)5v4 · low · 41 ft · beat Ben Kraws
3rd 3:15Jacob MacDonald (1–4)low · 62 ft · beat Ben Kraws
3rd 8:19Penalty
3rd 12:17Penalty
3rd 12:39Penalty
3rd 15:08Chase Bradley (1–5)empty net · low · 20 ft · beat Ben Kraws