AHLDashboard
‹ Saturday, November 2

Coachella Valley Firebirds at Bakersfield Condors

Mechanics Bank Arena · Bakersfield, CA

Coachella Valley Firebirds
5:2
Final
Bakersfield Condors

The sheet

CVBAKSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
73%27%
xG
3.92.6
High danger
75
Chances
168
Shots
3326

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

01234P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
BAK above the lineCV belowDots are goals. Pre-game 51% BAK.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

33Shots on goal26
16Scoring chances8
7High-danger chances5
3.91Expected goals2.55

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st8–72–31–21.1–0.9
2nd14–76–13–11.3–0.6
3rd11–128–43–21.5–1.0

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

BAK−30:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
BAK35:50 of the 3rd14:1014:10+0.020 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Collin Delia
Shots faced
33
Saves
28
Allowed
5
xGA
3.91
GSAx
-1.09
Nikke Kokko
Shots faced
26
Saves
24
Allowed
2
xGA
2.55
GSAx
+0.55

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 3:06Ian McKinnon (1–0)low · wrist · 34 ft · beat Collin Delia
  • 1st 5:04Penalty
  • 1st 6:36Penalty
  • 1st 13:47Daniel D’Amato (1–1)low · wrist · 38 ft · beat Nikke Kokko
  • 1st 16:58Penalty
  • 1st 16:58Penalty
  • 2nd 5:20Penalty
  • 2nd 6:31Ryan Winterton (2–1)4v5 · high · backhand · 10 ft · beat Collin Delia
  • 2nd 8:13Lleyton Roed (3–1)medium · wrist · 19 ft · beat Collin Delia
  • 2nd 8:48Penalty
  • 3rd 0:52Penalty
  • 3rd 3:41Penalty
  • 3rd 5:50Jacob Melanson (4–1)medium · wrist · 18 ft · beat Collin Delia
  • 3rd 7:54Penalty
  • 3rd 7:54Penalty
  • 3rd 9:33Penalty
  • 3rd 11:17Penalty
  • 3rd 12:36Penalty
  • 3rd 12:36Penalty
  • 3rd 13:37Penalty
  • 3rd 13:37Penalty
  • 3rd 16:57Cameron Wright (4–2)low · wrist · 48 ft · beat Nikke Kokko
  • 3rd 18:59Ryan Winterton (5–2)empty net · medium · wrist · 20 ft · beat Collin Delia