Coachella Valley Firebirds at Colorado Eagles

Blue Federal Credit Union Arena · Loveland, CO

Coachella Valley Firebirds

0:5

Final

Colorado Eagles

The sheet

CVCOLSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

28%72%

xG: 1.93.3
High danger: 37
Chances: 914
Shots: 2529

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

COL above the lineCV belowDots are goals. Pre-game 55% COL.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

25Shots on goal29

9Scoring chances14

3High-danger chances7

1.93Expected goals3.29

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	9–15	1–7	0–5	0.4–1.9
2nd	7–9	1–5	0–2	0.3–0.9
3rd	9–5	7–2	3–0	1.2–0.4

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
CV	4	0:00 of the 3rd	20:00	20:00	+0.013 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Aleš Stezka

Shots faced: 29
Saves: 24
Allowed: 5
xGA: 3.29
GSAx: -1.71

Kevin Mandolese

Shots faced: 25
Saves: 25
Allowed: 0
xGA: 1.93
GSAx: +1.93

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 8:04Penalty
1st 9:21Oskar Olausson (0–1)5v4 · high · 9 ft · beat Aleš Stezka
1st 10:39Mark Senden (0–2)grade A · rebound · 12 ft · beat Aleš Stezka
2nd 0:53Penalty
2nd 6:01Penalty
2nd 8:08Jake Wise (0–3)high · 12 ft · beat Aleš Stezka
2nd 17:21Penalty
2nd 18:54Calle Rosén (0–4)5v4 · medium · 10 ft · beat Aleš Stezka
3rd 4:06Penalty
3rd 7:28Jayson Megna (0–5)medium · 7 ft · beat Aleš Stezka
3rd 14:29Penalty
3rd 14:29Penalty
3rd 17:22Penalty