AHLDashboard
‹ Wednesday, November 6

Abbotsford Canucks at Ontario Reign

Toyota Arena · Ontario, CA

Abbotsford Canucks
4:8
Final
Ontario Reign

The sheet

ABBONTSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
20%80%
xG
2.33.7
High danger
27
Chances
715
Shots
3330

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

01234P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
ONT above the lineABB belowDots are goals. Pre-game 56% ONT.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

33Shots on goal30
7Scoring chances15
2High-danger chances7
2.32Expected goals3.65

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st10–131–60–30.6–1.7
2nd14–103–42–21.1–1.1
3rd9–73–50–20.7–0.9

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

ABB−3−20:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
ABB35:01 of the 3rd14:5910:20+0.021 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Erik Portillo
Shots faced
33
Saves
29
Allowed
4
xGA
2.32
GSAx
-1.68
Nikita Tolopilo
Shots faced
26
Saves
18
Allowed
8
xGA
3.23
GSAx
-4.77
Jiří Patera
Shots faced
4
Saves
4
Allowed
0
xGA
0.42
GSAx
+0.42

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 3:48Samuel Fagemo (0–1)high · 11 ft · beat Nikita Tolopilo
  • 1st 4:40Taylor Ward (0–2)medium · 19 ft · beat Nikita Tolopilo
  • 1st 5:36Penalty
  • 1st 6:01Danila Klimovich (1–2)5v4 · low · 56 ft · beat Erik Portillo
  • 1st 6:27Charles Hudon (1–3)medium · 19 ft · beat Nikita Tolopilo
  • 1st 12:54Jeff Malott (1–4)grade A · rebound · 12 ft · beat Nikita Tolopilo
  • 1st 17:39Penalty
  • 2nd 3:40Charles Hudon (1–5)grade A · rebound · 10 ft · beat Nikita Tolopilo
  • 2nd 5:14Penalty
  • 2nd 5:14Penalty
  • 2nd 5:57Penalty
  • 2nd 5:57Penalty
  • 2nd 6:38Penalty
  • 2nd 8:24Jonathan Lekkerimäki (2–5)5v4 · low · 57 ft · beat Erik Portillo
  • 2nd 11:20Ty Mueller (3–5)high · 11 ft · beat Erik Portillo
  • 2nd 18:49Penalty
  • 2nd 19:13Penalty
  • 3rd 5:01Tyler Madden (3–6)high · 17 ft · beat Nikita Tolopilo
  • 3rd 7:30Arshdeep Bains (4–6)medium · 19 ft · beat Erik Portillo
  • 3rd 12:29Penalty
  • 3rd 14:16Jack Studnicka (4–7)5v4 · medium · 26 ft · beat Nikita Tolopilo
  • 3rd 17:50Samuel Fagemo (4–8)empty net · medium · 14 ft · beat Nikita Tolopilo