Hartford Wolf Pack at Rochester Americans

Blue Cross Arena · Rochester, NY

Hartford Wolf Pack

3:6

Final

Rochester Americans

The sheet

HFDROCSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

37%63%

xG: 2.23.3
High danger: 35
Chances: 89
Shots: 2835

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

ROC above the lineHFD belowDots are goals. Pre-game 53% ROC.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

28Shots on goal35

8Scoring chances9

3High-danger chances5

2.18Expected goals3.34

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	10–11	4–4	1–3	0.8–1.3
2nd	6–18	0–2	0–0	0.3–1.4
3rd	12–6	4–3	2–2	1.1–0.6

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
HFD	4	0:00 of the 3rd	20:00	20:00	+0.013 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Louis Domingue

Shots faced: 35
Saves: 29
Allowed: 6
xGA: 3.34
GSAx: -2.66

Felix Sandström

Shots faced: 15
Saves: 14
Allowed: 1
xGA: 1.08
GSAx: +0.08

Michael Houser

Shots faced: 13
Saves: 11
Allowed: 2
xGA: 1.10
GSAx: -0.90

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 6:09Penalty
1st 6:34Brett Murray (0–1)5v4 · high · 6 ft · beat Louis Domingue
1st 9:48Penalty
1st 10:15Jiří Kulich (0–2)5v4 · low · 45 ft · beat Louis Domingue
1st 13:54Dylan Roobroeck (1–2)medium · 25 ft · beat Felix Sandström
2nd 4:14Penalty
2nd 10:34Viktor Neuchev (1–3)low · 31 ft · beat Louis Domingue
2nd 13:32Konsta Helenius (1–4)low · 28 ft · beat Louis Domingue
2nd 14:00Josh Dunne (1–5)low · 46 ft · beat Louis Domingue
2nd 16:09Penalty
2nd 16:09Penalty
3rd 1:10Brett Berard (2–5)grade A · rebound · 12 ft · beat Michael Houser
3rd 6:19Isak Rosén (2–6)high · 10 ft · beat Louis Domingue
3rd 8:54Penalty
3rd 11:44Bryce McConnell-Barker (3–6)high · 6 ft · beat Michael Houser