Grand Rapids Griffins at Rockford IceHogs

BMO Center · Rockford, IL

Grand Rapids Griffins

4:2

Final

Rockford IceHogs

The sheet

GRRFDSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

60%40%

xG: 2.42.6
High danger: 83
Chances: 912
Shots: 2929

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

RFD above the lineGR belowDots are goals. Pre-game 48% RFD.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

29Shots on goal29

9Scoring chances12

8High-danger chances3

2.44Expected goals2.65

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	10–8	2–6	2–1	0.7–1.1
2nd	10–10	4–3	3–1	1.0–0.9
3rd	9–11	3–3	3–1	0.8–0.7

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
RFD	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	3:04	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Sebastian Cossa

Shots faced: 29
Saves: 27
Allowed: 2
xGA: 2.65
GSAx: +0.65

Drew Commesso

Shots faced: 28
Saves: 25
Allowed: 3
xGA: 2.43
GSAx: -0.57

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 7:49Penalty
1st 9:27Penalty
1st 12:29Penalty
1st 19:51Penalty
2nd 2:07Penalty
2nd 11:21Penalty
2nd 12:15Penalty
2nd 17:28Penalty
3rd 2:38Gabriel Seger (1–0)high · 11 ft · beat Drew Commesso
3rd 5:24Gabriel Seger (2–0)high · tip · 16 ft · beat Drew Commesso
3rd 8:47Penalty
3rd 10:19Frank Nazar (2–1)4v5 · medium · 18 ft · beat Sebastian Cossa
3rd 13:46Artyom Levshunov (2–2)low · 66 ft · beat Sebastian Cossa
3rd 14:54Sheldon Dries (3–2)low · 29 ft · beat Drew Commesso
3rd 19:54Josiah Didier (4–2)empty net · low · 157 ft