Coachella Valley Firebirds at Ontario Reign

Toyota Arena · Ontario, CA

Coachella Valley Firebirds

4:3

Final

Ontario Reign

The sheet

CVONTSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

77%23%

xG: 2.11.4
High danger: 52
Chances: 84
Shots: 2216

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

ONT above the lineCV belowDots are goals. Pre-game 54% ONT.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

22Shots on goal16

8Scoring chances4

5High-danger chances2

2.14Expected goals1.35

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	10–6	3–2	2–1	0.9–0.5
2nd	3–5	1–1	0–0	0.3–0.3
3rd	9–5	4–1	3–1	0.9–0.6

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
ONT	1	17:36 of the 3rd	2:24	2:24	+0.051 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Erik Portillo

Shots faced: 22
Saves: 18
Allowed: 4
xGA: 2.14
GSAx: -1.86

Nikke Kokko

Shots faced: 16
Saves: 13
Allowed: 3
xGA: 1.35
GSAx: -1.65

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 2:51Penalty
1st 3:23Penalty
1st 4:36Eduard Šalé (1–0)5v4 · high · 28 ft · beat Erik Portillo
1st 8:55Glenn Gawdin (1–1)medium · 7 ft · beat Nikke Kokko
1st 17:23Penalty
2nd 0:20Penalty
2nd 3:17Taylor Ward (1–2)low · 48 ft · beat Nikke Kokko
2nd 6:17Ville Ottavainen (2–2)medium · 29 ft · beat Erik Portillo
2nd 12:49Penalty
2nd 15:40Penalty
3rd 6:32Jacob Doty (2–3)grade A · 13 ft · beat Nikke Kokko
3rd 8:41Penalty
3rd 8:41Penalty
3rd 11:11Jani Nyman (3–3)high · 8 ft · beat Erik Portillo
3rd 17:36Jagger Firkus (4–3)high · 21 ft · beat Erik Portillo