Toronto Marlies at Charlotte Checkers

Bojangles Coliseum · Charlotte, NC

Toronto Marlies

4:3

Final

Charlotte Checkers

The sheet

TORCLTSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

42%58%

xG: 2.83.3
High danger: 55
Chances: 1314
Shots: 2531

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

CLT above the lineTOR belowDots are goals. Pre-game 55% CLT.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

25Shots on goal31

13Scoring chances14

5High-danger chances5

2.77Expected goals3.33

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	10–8	4–2	2–1	1.0–0.7
2nd	8–11	4–8	2–3	0.8–1.5
3rd	7–12	5–4	1–1	1.0–1.2

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
CLT	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	3:04	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Dennis Hildeby

Shots faced: 31
Saves: 28
Allowed: 3
xGA: 3.33
GSAx: +0.33

Chris Driedger

Shots faced: 25
Saves: 21
Allowed: 4
xGA: 2.77
GSAx: -1.23

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 2:15Penalty
1st 6:54Penalty
1st 6:54Penalty
1st 7:17Penalty
1st 8:03Logan Shaw (1–0)5v4 · medium · 47 ft · beat Chris Driedger
1st 12:18Penalty
1st 14:29Aidan McDonough (1–1)high · 8 ft · beat Dennis Hildeby
2nd 0:52Alex Steeves (2–1)high · 6 ft · beat Chris Driedger
2nd 9:50Ryan McAllister (2–2)medium · 6 ft · beat Dennis Hildeby
2nd 17:05Aidan McDonough (2–3)medium · 11 ft · beat Dennis Hildeby
2nd 20:00Penalty
3rd 0:15Penalty
3rd 2:19Penalty
3rd 3:07Joseph Blandisi (3–3)4v5 · medium · 25 ft · beat Chris Driedger
3rd 6:59Penalty
3rd 7:46Penalty
3rd 11:46Penalty
3rd 13:46Alex Steeves (4–3)5v4 · medium · 23 ft · beat Chris Driedger