Springfield Thunderbirds at Hershey Bears

Giant Center · Hershey, PA

Springfield Thunderbirds

2:3

Final

Hershey Bears

The sheet

SPRHERSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

35%65%

xG: 2.73.5
High danger: 46
Chances: 1114
Shots: 2530

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

HER above the lineSPR belowDots are goals. Pre-game 52% HER.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

25Shots on goal30

11Scoring chances14

4High-danger chances6

2.74Expected goals3.49

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	9–17	4–8	2–5	1.2–2.2
2nd	7–7	4–2	1–1	0.8–0.6
3rd	9–6	3–4	1–0	0.7–0.7

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
SPR	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	3:04	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Vadim Zherenko

Shots faced: 30
Saves: 27
Allowed: 3
xGA: 3.49
GSAx: +0.49

Hunter Shepard

Shots faced: 25
Saves: 23
Allowed: 2
xGA: 2.74
GSAx: +0.74

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 13:15Aleksanteri Kaskimäki (1–0)grade A · rebound · 5 ft · beat Hunter Shepard
1st 17:49Penalty
2nd 1:26Marcus Sylvegard (2–0)low · 32 ft · beat Hunter Shepard
2nd 4:17Brennan Saulnier (2–1)low · 35 ft · beat Vadim Zherenko
2nd 7:30Henrik Rybinski (2–2)low · 35 ft · beat Vadim Zherenko
2nd 8:40Penalty
2nd 11:02Penalty
3rd 8:15Penalty
3rd 16:33Ethan Bear (2–3)low · 12 ft · beat Vadim Zherenko