Chicago Wolves at Milwaukee Admirals

UW-Milwaukee Panther Arena · Milwaukee, WI

Chicago Wolves

2:1

Final

Milwaukee Admirals

The sheet

CHIMILSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

53%47%

xG: 3.22.2
High danger: 46
Chances: 1110
Shots: 3719

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

MIL above the lineCHI belowDots are goals. Pre-game 52% MIL.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

37Shots on goal19

11Scoring chances10

4High-danger chances6

3.16Expected goals2.20

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	10–4	2–2	0–1	0.6–0.4
2nd	13–8	6–5	3–3	1.4–1.0
3rd	14–7	3–3	1–2	1.2–0.8

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
MIL	1	19:53 of the 3rd	0:07	0:07	+0.002 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Matthew Murray

Shots faced: 37
Saves: 35
Allowed: 2
xGA: 3.16
GSAx: +1.16

Yaniv Perets

Shots faced: 19
Saves: 18
Allowed: 1
xGA: 2.20
GSAx: +1.20

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 8:47Penalty
1st 19:32Penalty
2nd 3:47Penalty
2nd 6:10Penalty
2nd 6:10Penalty
2nd 6:10Penalty
2nd 8:11Penalty
2nd 11:22Penalty
2nd 15:29Penalty
2nd 18:30Penalty
2nd 18:30Penalty
2nd 19:27Penalty
2nd 19:27Penalty
3rd 6:55Penalty
3rd 7:31Ozzy Wiesblatt (0–1)5v4 · medium · 24 ft · beat Yaniv Perets
3rd 7:39Justin Robidas (1–1)grade A · 18 ft · beat Matthew Murray
3rd 10:04Penalty
3rd 14:44Penalty
3rd 19:53Justin Robidas (2–1)low · 31 ft · beat Matthew Murray
3rd 19:57Penalty