Laval Rocket at Belleville Senators

CAA Arena · Belleville, ON

Laval Rocket

2:3

Final

Belleville Senators

The sheet

LAVBELSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

39%61%

xG: 3.13.8
High danger: 35
Chances: 1220
Shots: 2931

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

BEL above the lineLAV belowDots are goals. Pre-game 49% BEL.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

29Shots on goal31

12Scoring chances20

3High-danger chances5

3.12Expected goals3.79

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	13–7	4–3	2–1	1.4–0.7
2nd	12–12	7–6	1–1	1.4–1.4
3rd	4–12	1–11	0–3	0.3–1.7

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
LAV	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	3:04	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Jakub Dobeš

Shots faced: 31
Saves: 28
Allowed: 3
xGA: 3.80
GSAx: +0.80

Malcolm Subban

Shots faced: 29
Saves: 27
Allowed: 2
xGA: 3.12
GSAx: +1.12

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 13:19Penalty
1st 16:34Penalty
2nd 5:11Xavier Simoneau (1–0)medium · 29 ft · beat Malcolm Subban
2nd 8:06Owen Beck (2–0)low · 30 ft · beat Malcolm Subban
2nd 12:05Penalty
2nd 16:55Penalty
2nd 19:02Oskar Pettersson (2–1)medium · 27 ft · beat Jakub Dobeš
2nd 20:00Penalty
3rd 0:33Xavier Bourgault (2–2)5v4 · high · 21 ft · beat Jakub Dobeš
3rd 6:48Penalty
3rd 10:56Maxence Guenette (2–3)medium · 19 ft · beat Jakub Dobeš
3rd 11:12Penalty
3rd 17:32Penalty
3rd 17:32Penalty