AHLDashboard
‹ Saturday, November 9

Iowa Wild at Rockford IceHogs

BMO Center · Rockford, IL

Iowa Wild
6:3
Final
Rockford IceHogs

The sheet

IARFDSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
42%58%
xG
2.42.4
High danger
23
Chances
68
Shots
3033

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

00.511.522.5P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
RFD above the lineIA belowDots are goals. Pre-game 51% RFD.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

30Shots on goal33
6Scoring chances8
2High-danger chances3
2.37Expected goals2.37

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st9–92–41–20.8–0.8
2nd13–93–21–11.0–0.7
3rd8–151–20–00.6–0.9

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

RFD−30:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
RFD311:10 of the 3rd8:508:50+0.012 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Dylan Ferguson
Shots faced
33
Saves
30
Allowed
3
xGA
2.37
GSAx
-0.63
Drew Commesso
Shots faced
30
Saves
24
Allowed
6
xGA
2.37
GSAx
-3.63

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 1:46Penalty
  • 1st 4:06Penalty
  • 1st 4:33Cole Guttman (0–1)5v4 · high · 24 ft · beat Dylan Ferguson
  • 1st 7:17Liam Öhgren (1–1)high · 15 ft · beat Drew Commesso
  • 1st 17:50Penalty
  • 1st 19:25Luke Toporowski (2–1)5v4 · medium · 50 ft · beat Drew Commesso
  • 2nd 4:37Liam Öhgren (3–1)medium · 28 ft · beat Drew Commesso
  • 2nd 18:29Penalty
  • 2nd 19:52Cole Guttman (3–2)5v4 · medium · 60 ft · beat Dylan Ferguson
  • 3rd 0:20Brett Seney (3–3)medium · 23 ft · beat Dylan Ferguson
  • 3rd 1:39Luke Toporowski (4–3)low · 14 ft · beat Drew Commesso
  • 3rd 2:06Bradley Marek (5–3)low · tip · 18 ft · beat Drew Commesso
  • 3rd 9:26Penalty
  • 3rd 11:10Liam Öhgren (6–3)5v4 · medium · 19 ft · beat Drew Commesso
  • 3rd 16:43Penalty
  • 3rd 16:43Penalty