Manitoba Moose at Texas Stars

H-E-B Center at Cedar Park · Cedar Park, TX

Manitoba Moose

2:5

Final

Texas Stars

The sheet

MBTEXSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

8%92%

xG: 1.44.0
High danger: 06
Chances: 616
Shots: 1840

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

TEX above the lineMB belowDots are goals. Pre-game 53% TEX.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

18Shots on goal40

6Scoring chances16

0High-danger chances6

1.39Expected goals3.97

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	7–14	3–7	0–4	0.7–1.6
2nd	3–12	1–7	0–2	0.2–1.5
3rd	8–14	2–2	0–0	0.5–0.9

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
MB	3	0:00 of the 3rd	20:00	20:00	+0.024 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Domenic DiVincentiis

Shots faced: 40
Saves: 35
Allowed: 5
xGA: 3.97
GSAx: -1.03

Magnus Hellberg

Shots faced: 18
Saves: 16
Allowed: 2
xGA: 1.39
GSAx: -0.61

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 2:52Penalty
1st 7:15Penalty
1st 7:57Kole Lind (0–1)5v4 · high · 20 ft · beat Domenic DiVincentiis
1st 8:30Penalty
1st 8:30Penalty
1st 8:30Penalty
1st 8:30Penalty
1st 8:30Mason Shaw (1–1)medium · 7 ft · beat Magnus Hellberg
1st 8:47Penalty
1st 8:47Penalty
1st 8:47Penalty
1st 8:47Penalty
1st 8:47Penalty
1st 8:47Matěj Blümel (1–2)grade A · 8 ft · beat Domenic DiVincentiis
1st 9:04Penalty
1st 13:29Penalty
1st 18:58Arttu Hyry (1–3)low · 52 ft · beat Domenic DiVincentiis
2nd 4:21Penalty
2nd 14:04Penalty
2nd 15:16Penalty
2nd 16:32Kole Lind (1–4)5v4 · low · 37 ft · beat Domenic DiVincentiis
3rd 4:42Penalty
3rd 4:42Penalty
3rd 4:42Penalty
3rd 4:42Penalty
3rd 15:29Ben King (2–4)low · 54 ft · beat Magnus Hellberg
3rd 18:54Emilio Pettersen (2–5)empty net · low · 160 ft · beat Domenic DiVincentiis
3rd 19:17Penalty
3rd 19:17Penalty