AHLDashboard
‹ Saturday, November 9

Henderson Silver Knights at Calgary Wranglers

Scotiabank Saddledome · Calgary, AB

Henderson Silver Knights
8:3
Final
Calgary Wranglers

The sheet

HSKCGYSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
57%43%
xG
3.53.0
High danger
85
Chances
1510
Shots
2631

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

0123P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
CGY above the lineHSK belowDots are goals. Pre-game 47% CGY.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

26Shots on goal31
15Scoring chances10
8High-danger chances5
3.48Expected goals3.04

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st10–66–14–01.6–0.4
2nd7–183–50–30.4–1.8
3rd9–76–44–21.4–0.9

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

CGY−40:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
CGY40:00 of the 3rd20:0020:00+0.013 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Jesper Vikman
Shots faced
31
Saves
28
Allowed
3
xGA
3.04
GSAx
+0.04
Waltteri Ignatjew
Shots faced
21
Saves
15
Allowed
6
xGA
2.33
GSAx
-3.67
Devin Cooley
Shots faced
5
Saves
3
Allowed
2
xGA
1.15
GSAx
-0.85

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 1:40Penalty
  • 1st 2:31Calen Addison (1–0)5v4 · low · slap · 61 ft · beat Waltteri Ignatjew
  • 1st 7:19Jakub Brabenec (2–0)medium · wrist · 24 ft · beat Waltteri Ignatjew
  • 1st 9:33Mitch McLain (3–0)low · wrist · 40 ft · beat Waltteri Ignatjew
  • 1st 9:56Cal Burke (4–0)high · tip · 6 ft · beat Devin Cooley
  • 1st 12:57Tanner Laczynski (5–0)high · backhand · rebound · 9 ft · beat Devin Cooley
  • 1st 14:16Penalty
  • 1st 18:32Penalty
  • 2nd 4:43Penalty
  • 2nd 7:28Jarred Tinordi (5–1)low · wrist · 34 ft · beat Jesper Vikman
  • 2nd 16:46Mason Morelli (6–1)medium · tip · 8 ft · beat Waltteri Ignatjew
  • 2nd 16:55Jakob Pelletier (6–2)grade A · tip · 13 ft · beat Jesper Vikman
  • 2nd 17:39Penalty
  • 2nd 17:39Penalty
  • 3rd 4:55Penalty
  • 3rd 6:14Mason Morelli (7–2)5v4 · grade A · snap · rebound · 9 ft · beat Waltteri Ignatjew
  • 3rd 13:39Rory Kerins (7–3)medium · snap · 20 ft · beat Jesper Vikman
  • 3rd 14:36Riley McKay (8–3)empty net · high · wrist · 5 ft · beat Waltteri Ignatjew
  • 3rd 16:01Penalty
  • 3rd 16:01Penalty
  • 3rd 19:10Penalty
  • 3rd 19:10Penalty