Colorado Eagles at San Jose Barracuda

Tech CU Arena · San Jose, CA

Colorado Eagles

3:2

Final

San Jose Barracuda

The sheet

COLSJSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

24%76%

xG: 2.53.6
High danger: 25
Chances: 1012
Shots: 2739

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

SJ above the lineCOL belowDots are goals. Pre-game 51% SJ.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

27Shots on goal39

10Scoring chances12

2High-danger chances5

2.46Expected goals3.60

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	7–9	2–4	0–2	0.5–1.0
2nd	11–12	4–2	2–1	1.2–1.1
3rd	9–18	4–6	0–2	0.8–1.6

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
SJ	1	17:01 of the 3rd	2:59	2:59	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Kevin Mandolese

Shots faced: 39
Saves: 37
Allowed: 2
xGA: 3.59
GSAx: +1.59

Yaroslav Askarov

Shots faced: 27
Saves: 24
Allowed: 3
xGA: 2.46
GSAx: -0.54

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 12:35Matthew Phillips (1–0)medium · 8 ft · beat Yaroslav Askarov
1st 13:20Penalty
1st 14:28Andrew Poturalski (1–1)5v4 · medium · 21 ft · beat Kevin Mandolese
2nd 7:19Penalty
2nd 11:01Penalty
2nd 11:56Penalty
3rd 2:56Penalty
3rd 8:59Collin Graf (1–2)low · 40 ft · beat Kevin Mandolese
3rd 13:01Jayson Megna (2–2)medium · 14 ft · beat Yaroslav Askarov
3rd 17:01Tye Felhaber (3–2)low · 30 ft · beat Yaroslav Askarov