AHLDashboard
‹ Saturday, November 9

San Diego Gulls at Tucson Roadrunners

Tucson Convention Center Arena · Tucson, AZ

San Diego Gulls
2:5
Final
Tucson Roadrunners

The sheet

SDTUCSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
46%54%
xG
2.52.6
High danger
43
Chances
610
Shots
2826

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

012P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
TUC above the lineSD belowDots are goals. Pre-game 53% TUC.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

28Shots on goal26
6Scoring chances10
4High-danger chances3
2.47Expected goals2.64

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st8–123–51–30.8–1.3
2nd12–61–21–00.9–0.6
3rd8–82–32–00.8–0.7

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

SD−10:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
SD117:48 of the 3rd2:122:12+0.049 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Jaxson Stauber
Shots faced
28
Saves
26
Allowed
2
xGA
2.47
GSAx
+0.47
Calle Clang
Shots faced
26
Saves
21
Allowed
5
xGA
2.64
GSAx
-2.36

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 6:51Penalty
  • 1st 8:46Artem Duda (0–1)5v4 · medium · 31 ft · beat Calle Clang
  • 1st 12:42Penalty
  • 2nd 2:21Penalty
  • 2nd 4:19Josh Lopina (1–1)5v4 · low · 45 ft · beat Jaxson Stauber
  • 2nd 7:00Jansen Harkins (2–1)high · 6 ft · beat Jaxson Stauber
  • 2nd 8:30Penalty
  • 2nd 11:12Penalty
  • 2nd 15:38Penalty
  • 2nd 15:38Penalty
  • 2nd 19:52Penalty
  • 2nd 20:00Penalty
  • 3rd 5:07Peter DiLiberatore (2–2)low · 45 ft · beat Calle Clang
  • 3rd 6:13Penalty
  • 3rd 12:57Penalty
  • 3rd 12:57Penalty
  • 3rd 17:48Kailer Yamamoto (2–3)medium · 21 ft · beat Calle Clang
  • 3rd 18:25Max Szuber (2–4)low · 16 ft · beat Calle Clang
  • 3rd 19:33Egor Sokolov (2–5)empty net · low · 49 ft · beat Calle Clang