AHLDashboard
‹ Sunday, November 10

Springfield Thunderbirds at Hershey Bears

Giant Center · Hershey, PA

Springfield Thunderbirds
2:3
Final / OT
Hershey Bears

The sheet

SPRHERSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
15%85%
xG
1.74.4
High danger
27
Chances
618
Shots
2143

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

01234P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
HER above the lineSPR belowDots are goals. Pre-game 52% HER.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

21Shots on goal43
6Scoring chances18
2High-danger chances7
1.67Expected goals4.41

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st7–201–81–30.4–2.0
2nd4–92–50–30.4–1.2
3rd10–123–41–10.8–1.0
OT0–20–10–00.0–0.2

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

SPR−10:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
SPR116:56 of the 3rd3:042:51+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Colten Ellis
Shots faced
43
Saves
40
Allowed
3
xGA
4.41
GSAx
+1.41
Clay Stevenson
Shots faced
21
Saves
19
Allowed
2
xGA
1.67
GSAx
-0.33

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 3:25Penalty
  • 1st 11:06Penalty
  • 1st 16:04Penalty
  • 2nd 1:11Penalty
  • 2nd 3:18Penalty
  • 2nd 10:14Riley Sutter (0–1)medium · 6 ft · beat Colten Ellis
  • 2nd 11:06Penalty
  • 2nd 11:18Penalty
  • 2nd 16:31Penalty
  • 2nd 16:31Penalty
  • 3rd 17:54Spencer Smallman (0–2)empty net · medium · 5 ft · beat Colten Ellis
  • 3rd 19:19Samuel Johannesson (1–2)grade A · rebound · 16 ft · beat Clay Stevenson
  • 3rd 19:47Nikita Alexandrov (2–2)medium · 12 ft · beat Clay Stevenson
  • OT 0:53Mike Vecchione (2–3)medium · rebound · 14 ft · beat Colten Ellis