Milwaukee Admirals at Chicago Wolves

Allstate Arena · Rosemont, IL

Milwaukee Admirals

2:1

Final

Chicago Wolves

The sheet

MILCHISolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

18%82%

xG: 2.04.2
High danger: 37
Chances: 1116
Shots: 1641

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

CHI above the lineMIL belowDots are goals. Pre-game 54% CHI.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

16Shots on goal41

11Scoring chances16

3High-danger chances7

1.96Expected goals4.18

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	6–18	5–6	2–3	0.8–2.0
2nd	8–12	4–4	0–2	0.8–1.1
3rd	2–11	2–6	1–2	0.3–1.1

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
CHI	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	3:04	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Magnus Chrona

Shots faced: 41
Saves: 40
Allowed: 1
xGA: 4.18
GSAx: +3.18

Ruslan Khazheyev

Shots faced: 16
Saves: 14
Allowed: 2
xGA: 1.95
GSAx: -0.05

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 6:10Penalty
1st 13:57Penalty
1st 14:23Kieffer Bellows (1–0)5v4 · medium · 4 ft · beat Ruslan Khazheyev
2nd 9:25Penalty
2nd 12:20Penalty
2nd 13:20Penalty
2nd 18:06Penalty
3rd 1:18Reid Schaefer (2–0)high · 14 ft · beat Ruslan Khazheyev
3rd 8:31Penalty
3rd 10:39Skyler Brind’Amour (2–1)high · 5 ft · beat Magnus Chrona
3rd 15:37Penalty
3rd 19:56Penalty