Manitoba Moose at Texas Stars

H-E-B Center at Cedar Park · Cedar Park, TX

Manitoba Moose

2:5

Final

Texas Stars

The sheet

MBTEXSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

82%18%

xG: 3.21.7
High danger: 41
Chances: 123
Shots: 3124

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

TEX above the lineMB belowDots are goals. Pre-game 53% TEX.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

31Shots on goal24

12Scoring chances3

4High-danger chances1

3.20Expected goals1.73

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	11–10	4–1	2–0	1.2–0.7
2nd	16–4	7–1	2–1	1.7–0.4
3rd	4–10	1–1	0–0	0.3–0.6

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
MB	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	3:04	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Magnus Hellberg

Shots faced: 31
Saves: 29
Allowed: 2
xGA: 3.20
GSAx: +1.20

Thomas Milic

Shots faced: 24
Saves: 19
Allowed: 5
xGA: 1.73
GSAx: -3.27

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 5:27Penalty
1st 9:03Penalty
1st 9:09Parker Ford (1–0)5v4 · grade A · 15 ft · beat Magnus Hellberg
1st 9:28Ben King (2–0)high · 5 ft · beat Magnus Hellberg
2nd 7:08Penalty
2nd 11:42Penalty
2nd 15:17Penalty
2nd 18:30Antonio Stranges (2–1)low · 39 ft · beat Thomas Milic
2nd 18:44Penalty
2nd 18:44Penalty
2nd 18:44Penalty
2nd 18:44Penalty
3rd 6:05Lian Bichsel (2–2)low · rebound · 62 ft · beat Thomas Milic
3rd 16:37Kyle McDonald (2–3)medium · 10 ft · beat Thomas Milic
3rd 17:51Curtis McKenzie (2–4)empty net · low · 65 ft · beat Thomas Milic
3rd 19:07Lian Bichsel (2–5)empty net · low · 181 ft · beat Thomas Milic