Colorado Eagles at San Jose Barracuda

Tech CU Arena · San Jose, CA

Colorado Eagles

3:5

Final

San Jose Barracuda

The sheet

COLSJSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

32%68%

xG: 3.03.7
High danger: 27
Chances: 1116
Shots: 3430

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

SJ above the lineCOL belowDots are goals. Pre-game 51% SJ.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

34Shots on goal30

11Scoring chances16

2High-danger chances7

3.00Expected goals3.66

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	12–10	3–5	1–3	1.1–1.3
2nd	5–9	2–7	0–3	0.4–1.2
3rd	17–11	6–4	1–1	1.5–1.1

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
COL	2	12:09 of the 3rd	7:51	7:51	+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Georgii Romanov

Shots faced: 34
Saves: 31
Allowed: 3
xGA: 3.00
GSAx: +0.00

Trent Miner

Shots faced: 30
Saves: 25
Allowed: 5
xGA: 3.66
GSAx: -1.34

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 6:34Donavan Houle (0–1)medium · 20 ft · beat Trent Miner
1st 8:43Penalty
1st 11:56Ethan Frisch (0–2)medium · 13 ft · beat Trent Miner
1st 13:33Oskar Olausson (1–2)low · 16 ft · beat Georgii Romanov
1st 16:08Penalty
1st 18:08Penalty
2nd 8:17Penalty
2nd 9:07Andrew Poturalski (1–3)5v4 · medium · 10 ft · beat Trent Miner
2nd 12:18Penalty
2nd 13:56Jean-Luc Foudy (2–3)5v4 · medium · 27 ft · beat Georgii Romanov
2nd 15:58Penalty
2nd 16:23Penalty
2nd 18:02Penalty
3rd 1:42Penalty
3rd 2:59Tristen Robins (2–4)5v4 · low · 51 ft · beat Trent Miner
3rd 13:24Tristen Robins (2–5)low · 41 ft · beat Trent Miner
3rd 16:22Jack Ahcan (3–5)medium · 11 ft · beat Georgii Romanov
3rd 19:25Penalty