Ontario Reign at Coachella Valley Firebirds

Acrisure Arena · Palm Desert, CA

Ontario Reign

2:4

Final

Coachella Valley Firebirds

The sheet

ONTCVSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

65%35%

xG: 3.62.3
High danger: 54
Chances: 129
Shots: 3927

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

CV above the lineONT belowDots are goals. Pre-game 52% CV.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

39Shots on goal27

12Scoring chances9

5High-danger chances4

3.63Expected goals2.34

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	19–11	6–4	3–2	1.7–1.0
2nd	6–9	2–4	0–1	0.4–0.9
3rd	14–7	4–1	2–1	1.6–0.5

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
ONT	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	3:04	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Aleš Stezka

Shots faced: 39
Saves: 37
Allowed: 2
xGA: 3.63
GSAx: +1.63

Pheonix Copley

Shots faced: 27
Saves: 23
Allowed: 4
xGA: 2.34
GSAx: -1.66

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 2:40Tucker Robertson (0–1)medium · 13 ft · beat Pheonix Copley
1st 6:18Penalty
1st 10:37Penalty
1st 13:57Martin Chromiak (1–1)5v4 · low · 41 ft · beat Aleš Stezka
1st 15:27Penalty
1st 18:06Martin Chromiak (2–1)low · 34 ft · beat Aleš Stezka
2nd 8:14Ville Ottavainen (2–2)low · 43 ft · beat Pheonix Copley
2nd 12:21Penalty
2nd 16:01Ryan Winterton (2–3)low · 26 ft · beat Pheonix Copley
3rd 6:32Penalty
3rd 19:49Lleyton Roed (2–4)empty net · low · 51 ft · beat Pheonix Copley