Bakersfield Condors at Abbotsford Canucks

Abbotsford Centre · Abbotsford, BC

Bakersfield Condors

2:4

Final

Abbotsford Canucks

The sheet

BAKABBSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

20%80%

xG: 1.93.0
High danger: 13
Chances: 512
Shots: 2531

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

ABB above the lineBAK belowDots are goals. Pre-game 52% ABB.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

25Shots on goal31

5Scoring chances12

1High-danger chances3

1.87Expected goals3.02

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	4–11	1–4	0–1	0.3–1.0
2nd	11–7	2–3	0–0	0.7–0.8
3rd	10–13	2–5	1–2	0.8–1.3

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
BAK	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	3:04	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Collin Delia

Shots faced: 31
Saves: 27
Allowed: 4
xGA: 3.02
GSAx: -0.98

Artūrs Šilovs

Shots faced: 25
Saves: 23
Allowed: 2
xGA: 1.87
GSAx: -0.13

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 1:18Penalty
1st 11:22Penalty
1st 19:55Penalty
2nd 2:37Akito Hirose (0–1)low · 34 ft · beat Collin Delia
2nd 10:56Penalty
2nd 11:55Matthew Savoie (1–1)5v4 · low · 38 ft · beat Artūrs Šilovs
3rd 2:22Penalty
3rd 3:25Danila Klimovich (1–2)5v4 · low · 53 ft · beat Collin Delia
3rd 4:45Drake Caggiula (2–2)low · 32 ft · beat Artūrs Šilovs
3rd 5:09Penalty
3rd 8:30Penalty
3rd 11:48Ty Mueller (2–3)medium · 10 ft · beat Collin Delia
3rd 19:19Jett Woo (2–4)empty net · low · 152 ft · beat Collin Delia