AHLDashboard
‹ Wednesday, November 13

Rockford IceHogs at Grand Rapids Griffins

Van Andel Arena · Grand Rapids, MI

Rockford IceHogs
2:5
Final
Grand Rapids Griffins

The sheet

RFDGRSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
56%44%
xG
3.12.6
High danger
88
Chances
1210
Shots
3021

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

0123P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
GR above the lineRFD belowDots are goals. Pre-game 58% GR.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

30Shots on goal21
12Scoring chances10
8High-danger chances8
3.12Expected goals2.58

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st10–74–03–00.9–0.4
2nd10–103–83–61.1–1.7
3rd10–45–22–21.2–0.5

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

RFD−30:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
RFD34:20 of the 3rd15:4015:40+0.021 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Sebastian Cossa
Shots faced
30
Saves
28
Allowed
2
xGA
3.12
GSAx
+1.12
Drew Commesso
Shots faced
21
Saves
16
Allowed
5
xGA
2.58
GSAx
-2.42

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 0:28Andreas Athanasiou (1–0)high · 6 ft · beat Sebastian Cossa
  • 2nd 0:53Cross Hanas (1–1)medium · rebound · 37 ft · beat Drew Commesso
  • 2nd 1:40Joe Snively (1–2)low · 44 ft · beat Drew Commesso
  • 2nd 3:43Penalty
  • 2nd 3:43Penalty
  • 2nd 4:03Andreas Athanasiou (2–2)low · 27 ft · beat Sebastian Cossa
  • 2nd 7:49Penalty
  • 2nd 9:48Penalty
  • 2nd 11:06Austin Watson (2–3)4v5 · high · wrist · 8 ft · beat Drew Commesso
  • 2nd 13:04Penalty
  • 2nd 14:04Sheldon Dries (2–4)5v4 · high · tip · 8 ft · beat Drew Commesso
  • 3rd 4:20Alex Doucet (2–5)high · backhand · 9 ft · beat Drew Commesso
  • 3rd 11:15Penalty
  • 3rd 15:55Penalty
  • 3rd 18:57Penalty
  • 3rd 18:57Penalty
  • 3rd 19:08Penalty