AHLDashboard
‹ Wednesday, November 13

Manitoba Moose at Milwaukee Admirals

UW-Milwaukee Panther Arena · Milwaukee, WI

Manitoba Moose
5:4
Final / SO
Milwaukee Admirals

The sheet

MBMILSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
56%44%
xG
3.02.8
High danger
32
Chances
118
Shots
3631

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

0123P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
MIL above the lineMB belowDots are goals. Pre-game 52% MIL.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

36Shots on goal31
11Scoring chances8
3High-danger chances2
2.99Expected goals2.78

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st16–55–23–01.6–0.5
2nd8–163–30–00.7–1.3
3rd9–83–20–20.5–0.9
OT3–20–10–00.2–0.2

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

MIL−10:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
MIL116:56 of the 3rd3:041:31+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Matthew Murray
Shots faced
36
Saves
32
Allowed
4
xGA
2.99
GSAx
-1.01
Thomas Milic
Shots faced
31
Saves
27
Allowed
4
xGA
2.78
GSAx
-1.22

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 3:15Penalty
  • 1st 4:11Dominic Toninato (1–0)5v4 · low · 46 ft · beat Matthew Murray
  • 1st 11:02Isaac Ratcliffe (1–1)low · 25 ft · beat Thomas Milic
  • 1st 12:40Penalty
  • 1st 12:40Penalty
  • 1st 12:40Penalty
  • 1st 13:13Penalty
  • 1st 13:13Penalty
  • 1st 13:13Penalty
  • 1st 13:59Elias Salomonsson (2–1)5v4 · low · 47 ft · beat Matthew Murray
  • 1st 15:19Penalty
  • 1st 15:24Penalty
  • 1st 19:25Penalty
  • 2nd 13:22Fedor Svechkov (2–2)low · 41 ft · beat Thomas Milic
  • 2nd 16:48Elias Salomonsson (3–2)low · 31 ft · beat Matthew Murray
  • 2nd 17:05Fedor Svechkov (3–3)medium · 17 ft · beat Thomas Milic
  • 2nd 17:16Penalty
  • 2nd 19:49Dylan Anhorn (4–3)medium · 19 ft · beat Matthew Murray
  • 3rd 12:10Penalty
  • 3rd 18:27Reid Schaefer (4–4)grade A · rebound · 19 ft · beat Thomas Milic
  • OT 2:00Penalty
  • OT 2:50Penalty
  • OT 2:50Penalty