Syracuse Crunch at Belleville Senators

CAA Arena · Belleville, ON

Syracuse Crunch

4:1

Final

Belleville Senators

The sheet

SYRBELSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

54%46%

xG: 2.72.7
High danger: 43
Chances: 913
Shots: 2828

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

BEL above the lineSYR belowDots are goals. Pre-game 49% BEL.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

28Shots on goal28

9Scoring chances13

4High-danger chances3

2.73Expected goals2.68

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	3–17	2–8	0–1	0.3–1.6
2nd	13–6	5–2	3–1	1.6–0.5
3rd	12–5	2–3	1–1	0.9–0.6

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
BEL	3	0:00 of the 3rd	20:00	20:00	+0.024 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Brandon Halverson

Shots faced: 28
Saves: 27
Allowed: 1
xGA: 2.68
GSAx: +1.68

Malcolm Subban

Shots faced: 28
Saves: 24
Allowed: 4
xGA: 2.73
GSAx: -1.27

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 6:55Penalty
1st 6:55Penalty
1st 7:10Penalty
1st 8:59Declan Carlile (1–0)5v4 · low · 72 ft · beat Malcolm Subban
1st 9:47Penalty
1st 16:08Penalty
1st 19:06Penalty
2nd 1:57Penalty
2nd 5:38Niko Huuhtanen (2–0)grade A · 21 ft · beat Malcolm Subban
2nd 15:31Penalty
2nd 16:47Niko Huuhtanen (3–0)5v4 · high · 20 ft · beat Malcolm Subban
3rd 17:28Penalty
3rd 17:52Angus Crookshank (3–1)5v4 · medium · 35 ft · beat Brandon Halverson
3rd 17:59Penalty
3rd 19:30Daniel Walcott (4–1)empty net · low · 59 ft · beat Malcolm Subban