Bridgeport Islanders at Hershey Bears

Giant Center · Hershey, PA

Bridgeport Islanders

6:1

Final

Hershey Bears

The sheet

BRIHERSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

44%56%

xG: 3.12.8
High danger: 65
Chances: 913
Shots: 3629

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

HER above the lineBRI belowDots are goals. Pre-game 52% HER.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

36Shots on goal29

9Scoring chances13

6High-danger chances5

3.13Expected goals2.83

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	18–6	4–3	4–2	1.7–0.6
2nd	9–14	3–8	1–2	0.7–1.4
3rd	9–9	2–2	1–1	0.7–0.8

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
HER	3	2:54 of the 3rd	17:06	17:06	+0.022 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Clay Stevenson

Shots faced: 36
Saves: 30
Allowed: 6
xGA: 3.13
GSAx: -2.87

Jakub Skarek

Shots faced: 29
Saves: 28
Allowed: 1
xGA: 2.83
GSAx: +1.83

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 6:54Tyce Thompson (1–0)low · 42 ft · beat Clay Stevenson
1st 10:19Penalty
1st 10:33Fredrik Karlström (2–0)5v4 · low · 62 ft · beat Clay Stevenson
1st 11:10Penalty
1st 17:25Penalty
2nd 8:09Ethen Frank (2–1)medium · 22 ft · beat Jakub Skarek
2nd 8:46Penalty
2nd 12:21Penalty
2nd 16:57Penalty
2nd 19:12Penalty
3rd 2:06Fredrik Karlström (3–1)low · 33 ft · beat Clay Stevenson
3rd 2:54Marc Gatcomb (4–1)high · 8 ft · beat Clay Stevenson
3rd 10:44Penalty
3rd 13:39Penalty
3rd 15:44Samuel Bolduc (5–1)5v4 · low · 48 ft · beat Clay Stevenson
3rd 18:22Matthew Maggio (6–1)medium · 10 ft · beat Clay Stevenson