Manitoba Moose at Rockford IceHogs

BMO Center · Rockford, IL

Manitoba Moose

2:3

Final

Rockford IceHogs

The sheet

MBRFDSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

33%67%

xG: 2.02.5
High danger: 25
Chances: 811
Shots: 2427

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

RFD above the lineMB belowDots are goals. Pre-game 50% RFD.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

24Shots on goal27

8Scoring chances11

2High-danger chances5

2.00Expected goals2.46

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	5–11	2–4	0–3	0.4–1.0
2nd	9–9	4–3	1–1	0.8–0.6
3rd	10–7	2–4	1–1	0.8–0.8

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
MB	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	3:04	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Thomas Milic

Shots faced: 27
Saves: 24
Allowed: 3
xGA: 2.46
GSAx: -0.54

Mitchell Weeks

Shots faced: 24
Saves: 22
Allowed: 2
xGA: 2.00
GSAx: -0.00

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 1:56Penalty
1st 2:15Penalty
1st 2:23Frank Nazar (0–1)5v4 · high · 28 ft · beat Thomas Milic
1st 8:17Penalty
1st 18:19Penalty
2nd 0:37Penalty
2nd 0:37Penalty
2nd 14:51Tyson Empey (1–1)high · 12 ft · beat Mitchell Weeks
2nd 17:14Penalty
3rd 2:21Tyson Empey (2–1)grade A · rebound · 8 ft · beat Mitchell Weeks
3rd 5:00Penalty
3rd 9:07Cole Guttman (2–2)grade A · rebound · 11 ft · beat Thomas Milic
3rd 13:09Gerry Mayhew (2–3)medium · tip · 26 ft · beat Thomas Milic
3rd 19:50Penalty