AHLDashboard
‹ Friday, November 15

Texas Stars at Iowa Wild

Wells Fargo Arena · Des Moines, IA

Texas Stars
3:5
Final
Iowa Wild

The sheet

TEXIASolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
38%62%
xG
3.84.0
High danger
411
Chances
1418
Shots
3530

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

01234P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
IA above the lineTEX belowDots are goals. Pre-game 52% IA.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

35Shots on goal30
14Scoring chances18
4High-danger chances11
3.82Expected goals3.98

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st9–103–60–40.9–1.3
2nd13–97–83–51.5–1.7
3rd13–114–41–21.4–0.9

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

TEX−2−10:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
TEX212:09 of the 3rd7:517:24+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Jesper Wallstedt
Shots faced
35
Saves
32
Allowed
3
xGA
3.82
GSAx
+0.82
Magnus Hellberg
Shots faced
30
Saves
25
Allowed
5
xGA
3.98
GSAx
-1.02

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 1:25Penalty
  • 1st 5:04Ben Jones (0–1)medium · snap · 23 ft · beat Magnus Hellberg
  • 1st 10:01Penalty
  • 2nd 1:34Penalty
  • 2nd 1:37Antonio Stranges (1–1)5v4 · medium · slap · 41 ft · beat Jesper Wallstedt
  • 2nd 3:53Penalty
  • 2nd 4:10Penalty
  • 2nd 4:50Luke Toporowski (1–2)5v4 · grade A · tip · rebound · 7 ft · beat Magnus Hellberg
  • 2nd 7:36Reese Johnson (1–3)medium · slap · 17 ft · beat Magnus Hellberg
  • 2nd 8:09Penalty
  • 2nd 8:09Penalty
  • 2nd 12:35Penalty
  • 2nd 15:59Penalty
  • 2nd 17:59Curtis McKenzie (2–3)5v4 · high · tip · 10 ft · beat Jesper Wallstedt
  • 2nd 19:31Penalty
  • 2nd 19:31Penalty
  • 2nd 19:31Penalty
  • 3rd 1:12Penalty
  • 3rd 2:13Graeme Clarke (2–4)5v4 · low · wrist · 54 ft · beat Magnus Hellberg
  • 3rd 8:12Penalty
  • 3rd 8:12Penalty
  • 3rd 15:31Penalty
  • 3rd 16:29Cameron Hughes (3–4)4v5 · grade A · rebound · 7 ft · beat Jesper Wallstedt
  • 3rd 17:59Penalty
  • 3rd 18:28Ben Jones (3–5)empty net · low · 100 ft · beat Magnus Hellberg