AHLDashboard
‹ Friday, November 15

Ontario Reign at Colorado Eagles

Blue Federal Credit Union Arena · Loveland, CO

Ontario Reign
5:3
Final
Colorado Eagles

The sheet

ONTCOLSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
48%52%
xG
2.53.4
High danger
53
Chances
1012
Shots
2638

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

0123P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
COL above the lineONT belowDots are goals. Pre-game 55% COL.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

26Shots on goal38
10Scoring chances12
5High-danger chances3
2.50Expected goals3.38

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st9–121–40–10.5–1.1
2nd9–105–33–11.1–0.9
3rd8–164–52–11.0–1.4

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

COL−10:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
COL212:21 of the 3rd7:393:41+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Pheonix Copley
Shots faced
38
Saves
35
Allowed
3
xGA
3.38
GSAx
+0.38
Kevin Mandolese
Shots faced
26
Saves
21
Allowed
5
xGA
2.50
GSAx
-2.50

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 7:32Neil Shea (0–1)medium · 16 ft · beat Pheonix Copley
  • 1st 7:53Penalty
  • 1st 8:08Reilly Walsh (1–1)5v4 · low · 41 ft · beat Kevin Mandolese
  • 2nd 1:40Chris Wagner (1–2)low · 34 ft · beat Pheonix Copley
  • 2nd 4:09Penalty
  • 2nd 5:00Penalty
  • 2nd 6:12Penalty
  • 2nd 9:18Penalty
  • 2nd 13:42Penalty
  • 2nd 18:54Kaleb Lawrence (2–2)high · 13 ft · beat Kevin Mandolese
  • 3rd 5:12Tyler Madden (3–2)grade A · rebound · 6 ft · beat Kevin Mandolese
  • 3rd 7:25Penalty
  • 3rd 10:42Penalty
  • 3rd 12:21Glenn Gawdin (4–2)4v5 · medium · 25 ft · beat Kevin Mandolese
  • 3rd 12:58Jacob MacDonald (4–3)low · 53 ft · beat Pheonix Copley
  • 3rd 19:30Samuel Fagemo (5–3)empty net · high · 11 ft · beat Kevin Mandolese