AHLDashboard
‹ Friday, November 15

Tucson Roadrunners at Henderson Silver Knights

Lee’s Family Forum · Henderson, NV

Tucson Roadrunners
2:6
Final
Henderson Silver Knights

The sheet

TUCHSKSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
51%49%
xG
3.23.2
High danger
79
Chances
1013
Shots
3031

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

0123P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
HSK above the lineTUC belowDots are goals. Pre-game 54% HSK.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

30Shots on goal31
10Scoring chances13
7High-danger chances9
3.25Expected goals3.19

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st11–155–54–31.6–1.3
2nd8–81–41–40.5–1.1
3rd11–84–42–21.2–0.8

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

TUC−3−20:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
TUC30:00 of the 3rd20:0010:44+0.024 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Matthew Villalta
Shots faced
31
Saves
25
Allowed
6
xGA
3.19
GSAx
-2.81
Jesper Vikman
Shots faced
30
Saves
28
Allowed
2
xGA
3.25
GSAx
+1.25

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 12:58Penalty
  • 1st 14:42Grigori Denisenko (0–1)5v4 · medium · wrist · 15 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
  • 2nd 0:21Mitch McLain (0–2)low · snap · 41 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
  • 2nd 4:58Penalty
  • 2nd 10:35Brendan Brisson (0–3)grade A · snap · rebound · 21 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
  • 2nd 13:35Penalty
  • 2nd 13:35Penalty
  • 2nd 19:12Penalty
  • 3rd 2:53Ben McCartney (1–3)medium · slap · 28 ft · beat Jesper Vikman
  • 3rd 3:38Penalty
  • 3rd 17:53Grigori Denisenko (1–4)empty net · low · snap · 51 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
  • 3rd 18:27Jonas Røndbjerg (1–5)empty net · low · snap · 149 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
  • 3rd 18:57Braeden Bowman (1–6)medium · wrist · 13 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
  • 3rd 19:47Sam Lipkin (2–6)high · wrist · 16 ft · beat Jesper Vikman