Belleville Senators at Toronto Marlies

Scotiabank Arena · Toronto, ON

Belleville Senators

4:3

Final / SO

Toronto Marlies

The sheet

BELTORSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

34%66%

xG: 2.32.6
High danger: 24
Chances: 1010
Shots: 2229

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

TOR above the lineBEL belowDots are goals. Pre-game 56% TOR.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

22Shots on goal29

10Scoring chances10

2High-danger chances4

2.28Expected goals2.64

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	6–5	1–1	0–0	0.4–0.3
2nd	6–10	4–3	2–1	1.0–0.8
3rd	6–12	4–6	0–3	0.6–1.5
OT	4–2	1–0	0–0	0.3–0.1

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
TOR	3	0:00 of the 3rd	20:00	5:32	+0.024 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Malcolm Subban

Shots faced: 29
Saves: 26
Allowed: 3
xGA: 2.64
GSAx: -0.36

Dennis Hildeby

Shots faced: 22
Saves: 19
Allowed: 3
xGA: 2.28
GSAx: -0.72

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 4:29Penalty
1st 8:05Penalty
1st 12:07Angus Crookshank (1–0)low · 32 ft · beat Dennis Hildeby
2nd 3:47Penalty
2nd 5:40Wyatt Bongiovanni (2–0)5v4 · high · 11 ft · beat Dennis Hildeby
2nd 18:26Wyatt Bongiovanni (3–0)medium · 30 ft · beat Dennis Hildeby
3rd 1:57Penalty
3rd 4:41Fraser Minten (3–1)grade A · rebound · 8 ft · beat Malcolm Subban
3rd 13:00Nikita Grebenkin (3–2)medium · 29 ft · beat Malcolm Subban
3rd 16:40Zach Solow (3–3)high · 16 ft · beat Malcolm Subban