Providence Bruins at Hartford Wolf Pack

XL Center · Hartford, CT

Providence Bruins

2:4

Final

Hartford Wolf Pack

The sheet

PROHFDSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

64%36%

xG: 3.32.3
High danger: 66
Chances: 129
Shots: 3425

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

HFD above the linePRO belowDots are goals. Pre-game 49% HFD.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

34Shots on goal25

12Scoring chances9

6High-danger chances6

3.29Expected goals2.33

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	11–7	5–2	2–2	1.2–0.6
2nd	13–8	7–4	4–1	1.6–0.8
3rd	10–10	0–3	0–3	0.5–1.0

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
PRO	2	12:09 of the 3rd	7:51	7:28	+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Dylan Garand

Shots faced: 34
Saves: 32
Allowed: 2
xGA: 3.29
GSAx: +1.29

Brandon Bussi

Shots faced: 25
Saves: 21
Allowed: 4
xGA: 2.33
GSAx: -1.67

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 5:02Blake Hillman (0–1)low · 43 ft · beat Brandon Bussi
1st 6:49Penalty
1st 8:14Vinni Lettieri (1–1)5v4 · high · 7 ft · beat Dylan Garand
1st 19:57Penalty
2nd 3:02Penalty
2nd 11:30Penalty
2nd 16:37Penalty
3rd 0:54Penalty
3rd 5:42Casey Fitzgerald (1–2)low · 45 ft · beat Brandon Bussi
3rd 8:15Connor Mackey (1–3)low · 30 ft · beat Brandon Bussi
3rd 11:29Penalty
3rd 16:12Marc McLaughlin (2–3)low · 21 ft · beat Dylan Garand
3rd 16:35Matt Rempe (2–4)low · 36 ft · beat Brandon Bussi