Coachella Valley Firebirds at Abbotsford Canucks

Abbotsford Centre · Abbotsford, BC

Coachella Valley Firebirds

4:3

Final

Abbotsford Canucks

The sheet

CVABBSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

66%34%

xG: 2.32.3
High danger: 52
Chances: 87
Shots: 2227

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

ABB above the lineCV belowDots are goals. Pre-game 50% ABB.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

22Shots on goal27

8Scoring chances7

5High-danger chances2

2.34Expected goals2.32

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	2–8	0–1	0–0	0.2–0.5
2nd	8–14	3–6	1–2	0.7–1.5
3rd	12–5	5–0	4–0	1.5–0.3

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
ABB	1	19:24 of the 3rd	0:36	0:36	+0.012 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Aleš Stezka

Shots faced: 27
Saves: 24
Allowed: 3
xGA: 2.32
GSAx: -0.68

Ty Young

Shots faced: 22
Saves: 18
Allowed: 4
xGA: 2.34
GSAx: -1.66

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 2:42Ty Glover (0–1)low · 27 ft · beat Aleš Stezka
1st 3:06Penalty
1st 6:34Luke Henman (1–1)low · 22 ft · beat Ty Young
1st 8:20Penalty
1st 15:03Max McCormick (2–1)low · 22 ft · beat Ty Young
2nd 1:03Eduard Šalé (3–1)low · 45 ft · beat Ty Young
2nd 3:18Cooper Walker (3–2)grade A · 9 ft · beat Aleš Stezka
2nd 14:30Nate Smith (3–3)medium · 11 ft · beat Aleš Stezka
3rd 0:36Penalty
3rd 0:36Penalty
3rd 15:51Penalty
3rd 17:33Penalty
3rd 19:24Cale Fleury (4–3)5v4 · low · 58 ft · beat Ty Young