Hershey Bears at Lehigh Valley Phantoms

PPL Center · Allentown, PA

Hershey Bears

6:3

Final

Lehigh Valley Phantoms

The sheet

HERLVSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

85%15%

xG: 3.61.9
High danger: 41
Chances: 124
Shots: 3927

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

LV above the lineHER belowDots are goals. Pre-game 53% LV.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

39Shots on goal27

12Scoring chances4

4High-danger chances1

3.60Expected goals1.85

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	8–10	1–1	0–0	0.5–0.6
2nd	20–6	6–2	3–1	2.1–0.6
3rd	11–11	5–1	1–0	1.0–0.7

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
LV	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	3:04	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Hunter Shepard

Shots faced: 27
Saves: 24
Allowed: 3
xGA: 1.85
GSAx: -1.15

Cal Petersen

Shots faced: 21
Saves: 18
Allowed: 3
xGA: 2.31
GSAx: -0.69

Eetu Makiniemi

Shots faced: 18
Saves: 15
Allowed: 3
xGA: 1.29
GSAx: -1.71

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 3:04Garrett Roe (1–0)low · snap · 44 ft · beat Eetu Makiniemi
1st 10:44Samu Tuomaala (1–1)low · wrist · 29 ft · beat Hunter Shepard
2nd 2:07Penalty
2nd 4:10Pierrick Dubé (2–1)medium · snap · 15 ft · beat Eetu Makiniemi
2nd 4:29Penalty
2nd 4:29Penalty
2nd 11:02Zac Funk (3–1)low · wrist · 48 ft · beat Eetu Makiniemi
2nd 15:29Penalty
2nd 18:02Penalty
3rd 0:15Penalty
3rd 2:38Rodrigo Abols (3–2)medium · backhand · 14 ft · beat Hunter Shepard
3rd 5:31Ethan Samson (3–3)low · 37 ft · beat Hunter Shepard
3rd 10:52Ethan Bear (4–3)low · 24 ft · beat Cal Petersen
3rd 17:00Mike Vecchione (5–3)low · snap · 39 ft · beat Cal Petersen
3rd 18:08Matt Strome (6–3)empty net · low · 81 ft · beat Cal Petersen