Charlotte Checkers at Springfield Thunderbirds

MassMutual Center · Springfield, MA

Charlotte Checkers

2:4

Final

Springfield Thunderbirds

The sheet

CLTSPRSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

50%50%

xG: 3.13.1
High danger: 56
Chances: 1412
Shots: 2726

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

SPR above the lineCLT belowDots are goals. Pre-game 49% SPR.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

27Shots on goal26

14Scoring chances12

5High-danger chances6

3.12Expected goals3.06

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	9–7	4–4	2–2	1.1–0.8
2nd	11–8	6–4	1–3	1.1–0.9
3rd	7–11	4–4	2–1	0.9–1.4

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
CLT	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	3:04	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Vadim Zherenko

Shots faced: 27
Saves: 25
Allowed: 2
xGA: 3.11
GSAx: +1.11

Ken Appleby

Shots faced: 26
Saves: 22
Allowed: 4
xGA: 3.06
GSAx: -0.94

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 6:38Penalty
1st 16:25Penalty
2nd 2:30Simon Robertsson (0–1)high · 10 ft · beat Ken Appleby
2nd 4:05Penalty
2nd 5:57Marcus Sylvegard (0–2)5v4 · high · 8 ft · beat Ken Appleby
2nd 8:46Penalty
2nd 16:19Penalty
2nd 16:19Penalty
2nd 19:58Trevor Carrick (1–2)5v4 · high · rebound · 9 ft · beat Vadim Zherenko
3rd 2:23Marek Alscher (2–2)medium · 12 ft · beat Vadim Zherenko
3rd 14:06Penalty
3rd 14:06Penalty
3rd 14:31Matthew Peca (2–3)grade A · 8 ft · beat Ken Appleby
3rd 19:20Dylan Peterson (2–4)empty net · medium · 18 ft · beat Ken Appleby