AHLDashboard
‹ Saturday, November 16

Manitoba Moose at Chicago Wolves

Allstate Arena · Rosemont, IL

Manitoba Moose
5:3
Final
Chicago Wolves

The sheet

MBCHISolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
75%25%
xG
2.51.7
High danger
51
Chances
108
Shots
2225

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

00.511.522.5P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
CHI above the lineMB belowDots are goals. Pre-game 53% CHI.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

22Shots on goal25
10Scoring chances8
5High-danger chances1
2.50Expected goals1.71

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st6–122–30–00.5–0.7
2nd13–75–43–11.5–0.7
3rd3–63–12–00.6–0.3

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

CHI−10:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
CHI116:56 of the 3rd3:043:04+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Kaapo Kähkönen
Shots faced
25
Saves
22
Allowed
3
xGA
1.71
GSAx
-1.29
Ruslan Khazheyev
Shots faced
22
Saves
17
Allowed
5
xGA
2.50
GSAx
-2.50

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 3:51Simon Lundmark (1–0)low · 42 ft · beat Ruslan Khazheyev
  • 1st 5:59Penalty
  • 1st 12:45Penalty
  • 1st 16:41Bradly Nadeau (1–1)low · 51 ft · beat Kaapo Kähkönen
  • 1st 16:53Penalty
  • 1st 19:01Penalty
  • 2nd 1:45Mark Liwiski (2–1)high · 7 ft · beat Ruslan Khazheyev
  • 2nd 4:10Josiah Slavin (2–2)medium · 7 ft · beat Kaapo Kähkönen
  • 2nd 8:57Penalty
  • 2nd 8:57Penalty
  • 2nd 8:57Penalty
  • 2nd 19:00Penalty
  • 2nd 19:30C.J. Suess (3–2)5v4 · grade A · rebound · 8 ft · beat Ruslan Khazheyev
  • 3rd 6:10Penalty
  • 3rd 6:10Penalty
  • 3rd 17:03Dominic Toninato (4–2)high · 5 ft · beat Ruslan Khazheyev
  • 3rd 17:15Penalty
  • 3rd 18:37Juha Jääskä (4–3)5v4 · medium · 40 ft · beat Kaapo Kähkönen
  • 3rd 19:22Tyson Empey (5–3)empty net · high · 10 ft · beat Ruslan Khazheyev