AHLDashboard
‹ Saturday, November 16

Bakersfield Condors at San Diego Gulls

Pechanga Arena San Diego · San Diego, CA

Bakersfield Condors
8:7
Final / SO
San Diego Gulls

The sheet

BAKSDSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
69%31%
xG
4.93.3
High danger
105
Chances
1414
Shots
4336

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

012345P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
SD above the lineBAK belowDots are goals. Pre-game 53% SD.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

43Shots on goal36
14Scoring chances14
10High-danger chances5
4.89Expected goals3.34

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st16–75–15–01.8–0.5
2nd13–97–43–31.7–1.0
3rd8–172–82–20.9–1.6
OT6–30–10–00.5–0.3

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

SD−4−2−10:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
SD40:00 of the 3rd20:0014:06+0.013 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Collin Delia
Shots faced
36
Saves
29
Allowed
7
xGA
3.34
GSAx
-3.66
Oscar Dansk
Shots faced
34
Saves
30
Allowed
4
xGA
3.70
GSAx
-0.30
Calle Clang
Shots faced
9
Saves
6
Allowed
3
xGA
1.18
GSAx
-1.82

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 1:11Penalty
  • 1st 1:52Penalty
  • 1st 3:48Ryan Carpenter (0–1)5v4 · medium · 34 ft · beat Collin Delia
  • 1st 5:18Noah Philp (1–1)high · 29 ft · beat Calle Clang
  • 1st 6:48Noah Philp (2–1)grade A · rebound · 16 ft · beat Calle Clang
  • 1st 7:13Drake Caggiula (3–1)low · 27 ft · beat Calle Clang
  • 1st 10:35Cameron Wright (4–1)low · 37 ft · beat Oscar Dansk
  • 1st 12:38Penalty
  • 1st 12:38Penalty
  • 1st 12:38Penalty
  • 1st 12:38Penalty
  • 1st 12:38Penalty
  • 1st 12:50Noel Hoefenmayer (5–1)low · 57 ft · beat Oscar Dansk
  • 1st 15:10Penalty
  • 1st 19:31Ryan Carpenter (5–2)low · 33 ft · beat Collin Delia
  • 2nd 4:12Seth Griffith (6–2)grade A · 22 ft · beat Oscar Dansk
  • 2nd 12:38Penalty
  • 2nd 15:39Penalty
  • 2nd 16:44Pavol Regenda (6–3)4v5 · grade A · rebound · 20 ft · beat Collin Delia
  • 2nd 17:36Daniel D’Amato (7–3)5v4 · high · rebound · 10 ft · beat Oscar Dansk
  • 3rd 1:11Penalty
  • 3rd 6:31Penalty
  • 3rd 7:52Penalty
  • 3rd 8:27Sam Colangelo (7–4)5v4 · medium · 56 ft · beat Collin Delia
  • 3rd 9:07Roland McKeown (7–5)5v4 · medium · 28 ft · beat Collin Delia
  • 3rd 13:54Penalty
  • 3rd 13:54Penalty
  • 3rd 15:00Josh Lopina (7–6)high · 22 ft · beat Collin Delia
  • 3rd 19:04Rodwin Dionicio (7–7)medium · 29 ft · beat Collin Delia
  • 3rd 19:38Penalty