AHLDashboard
‹ Saturday, November 16

Ontario Reign at Colorado Eagles

Blue Federal Credit Union Arena · Loveland, CO

Ontario Reign
4:6
Final
Colorado Eagles

The sheet

ONTCOLSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
32%68%
xG
1.82.4
High danger
12
Chances
68
Shots
2631

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

00.511.522.5P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
COL above the lineONT belowDots are goals. Pre-game 55% COL.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

26Shots on goal31
6Scoring chances8
1High-danger chances2
1.82Expected goals2.43

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st8–111–30–10.4–1.0
2nd6–104–30–10.7–0.8
3rd12–101–21–00.8–0.6

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

ONT−10:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
ONT116:56 of the 3rd3:043:04+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Jacob Ingham
Shots faced
31
Saves
25
Allowed
6
xGA
2.43
GSAx
-3.57
Kevin Mandolese
Shots faced
26
Saves
22
Allowed
4
xGA
1.82
GSAx
-2.18

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 0:16Penalty
  • 1st 0:16Penalty
  • 1st 0:36Tye Felhaber (0–1)grade A · rebound · 13 ft · beat Jacob Ingham
  • 2nd 3:38Reilly Walsh (1–1)medium · 8 ft · beat Kevin Mandolese
  • 2nd 5:17Jake Wise (1–2)high · 10 ft · beat Jacob Ingham
  • 2nd 8:29Penalty
  • 2nd 9:03Jacob MacDonald (1–3)5v4 · low · 56 ft · beat Jacob Ingham
  • 2nd 15:13Jack Ahcan (1–4)medium · 13 ft · beat Jacob Ingham
  • 2nd 18:13Angus Booth (2–4)medium · 12 ft · beat Kevin Mandolese
  • 3rd 3:29Glenn Gawdin (3–4)low · 46 ft · beat Kevin Mandolese
  • 3rd 3:57Shawn Element (4–4)low · 24 ft · beat Kevin Mandolese
  • 3rd 5:25Devante Stephens (4–5)medium · 11 ft · beat Jacob Ingham
  • 3rd 6:45Penalty
  • 3rd 16:51Penalty
  • 3rd 19:25Jake Wise (4–6)empty net · low · 61 ft · beat Jacob Ingham
  • 3rd 19:42Penalty
  • 3rd 19:42Penalty
  • 3rd 19:42Penalty